If you take a moment to look at the Indianapolis Convention Website:
you will notice that Gencon is "not" listed.
Strictly as a guesstimation on my part, and based upon the Gencon initiated survey inquiring if we would still attend if the dates were moved, "pleased to present, for your consideration" (yes, in my head I said that in Rod Serling's voice), Gencon will unquestionably be moved to a later date this year in the hope that it can still happen as safely as possible.
As I see it, the dates that Gencon could select from would be based on the following criteria:
1.) The later the date, the more vaccinations are pumped into arms, and the more people would possibly attend.
2.) Gencon would be held no later than October 21 - 24 because people want to be back home before Halloween, November is too close to the holidays and people want to save their money for Christmas.
3.) Gencon needs to schedule their convention when the Indianapolis Convention Center has 4 available dates over a weekend.
This leaves "my guesstimation" of the following available dates listed in order of possibility below that meet those criteria that Gencon would most likely (strictly my guesstimation - can't stress that enough) move Gencon convention off to:
(1) October 21st - 24th
(2) October 14th - 17th
(3) September 16th - 19th
Submitted for your approval, in the Gencon Zone (queue the Twilight Zone sound track)............................
Not much is on the ICC site, but Gencon's current dates are not booked. I'm assuming hold pattern on current dates.
There's really not a lot of positive to kicking Gencon within 2 weeks of Origins on either side - Origins grabbed Sept 30-Oct 3 2 months ago, so any gaming company that wants a fall date in the midwest already has it...
And once you get college students back in school intermixing (late August) and K-12 back in school intermixing (mid-Aug to early Sept), you've set the stage for enormous new viral mixing of folks which, more likely than not, won't be vaccinated...so between less sun, less heat, less humidity, and more mixing, you're bringing more germs and more possible issues (see this October's Covid ramping numbers and the normal ramp up of the flu, which went missing this year b/c no one was mingling)...
As of now, it would seem August is ideal for GENCON 2021, or GENCON 2021 is ideal for online.
I think we are totally where the former is 100% possible, but I understand if viral and world weariness and just the enormity of the plunge to be the 1st leads the Con organizers to feel the latter.
PS - Gencon is listed as a 2021 event on the Visit Indy calendar (Indy's official tourism site). So, again, I have a feeling the convention center and all spaces are holding the Gencon spots, but not making it official til Gencon knows itself which way it's going (onsite, online, or a mix)...
I suspect it's not listed on the site because the Gen Con organizers are still trying to determine if they can hold the show.
I would add one thing about a delayed Gencon, and it assumes the convention wants to make use of Lucas Oil Stadium. Assuming Gencon wants to keep its current floorspace size (which might be ideal for social distancing in general), a delayed convention will bleed into the start of football season, which means Gencon will likely need coordinate around the Colts game schedule.
So not considering the time needed to breakdown any Lucas oil tabletop set up post-convention, and also assuming Gencon doesn't get insider knowledge of the NFL schedule; there wouldn't be a way to guarantee availability of Lucas oil without the NFL schedule release. For non-NFL fans, in normal years this is released mid-April, and during Covid I think it wasn't release till like early/mid May.
Anyways just some added info to consider. Now if delayed Gencon just forgoes use of Lucas Oil, then just ignore me.
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NFL Schedule is usually released mid-April. If they truly are looking at moving things around, it would be easy enough to request the NFL not schedule a game on a certain weekend. From early August to end December, they only need it 10 weekends.
Using my very scientific approach...aka I went on Hilton.com and booked (yes, I actually booked them) hotel rooms in September, October, and November (thank you free cancellation) and some weekends were more expensive than others...I can with confidence (50.1%) determine that they are looking at these dates:
11/11 - 11/14
10/28 - 10/31 (I'd normally say this one but it could be prices are a little higher for the Halloween weekend).
In fact, the Halloween weekend would work pretty well for gamers.
Either way, hopefully we know soon. I have rooms booked downtown for every weekend in late September (I just don't see them moving the Con back 1 month...if it's bad in August, it'll be bad in September), October, and November.
It could also be that those are both holiday weekends - Halloween and Veteran's Day...
And if you got to ICC, events are now scheduled for Oct 1-12, so that clearly takes that time out as any kinda option...
PS - Labor Day weekend and Sept 22 also out...
National FFA Convention & Expo is listed Oct 27-30 at the convention center (downtown indy events) so, can probably strike that.
Damn well there's go my theories. I agree that Veteran's Day, Halloween, and definitely the FFA would drive up prices (and of course, the FFA would also tie up the convention center and I don't see them cancelling for Covid). I personally had to go to downtown Indy for work during the FFA (unrelated) and prices were crazy, Gen Con level crazy (I think we had to pay almost $400 for a room at the Hilton). So, I agree both of my weekends are probably out.
Welp, back to the drawing board. Hmm...does that mean I need to book rooms into December?
I didn't see anything the Sep 11/12 weekend or the November one you pointed out. The Indy Comic Con was shifted to October from May. Guess it is possible that other events have (or will) cancel which would open up dates and if Lucas Oil wasn't needed, then that would open up other non-weekend chunks of time I'd think. December just seems like a bad idea with weather and holidays and at that point, you just have another 8 months before 2022 Gencon anyways.
But I'm optimistic that it goes this August.
Fortunately, there's been a lot of good news on the vaccine front:
-The Johnson & Johnson vaccine got FDA emergency use approval yesterday (this only needs one dose and can be kept in normal refrigerators)
-The US administered 2.4 million doses today, according to the tracker on bloomberg.com; yesterday it administered 2.3 million
-There's a growing body of evidence that seems to indicate vaccinated people don't transmit the virus (really hope that this holds up under further scientific scrutiny)
Not to pour rain on those who are suggesting late Oct-Nov dates, but there are a number of factors you are missing.