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The odds of a healthy person under the age of 50 dying from this is remarkably low.
Done with the numbers game. Take your number and predictions to your social media channel. They're not Gen Con specific enough as you are using national data.
We're not going to get in a discussion/slash argument about whose right or wrong and what numbers to use.
Mike
Which is part of the problem. Even if things look amazing in early July, by the time the convention actually happens things could have been going completely sideways for weeks, and it may finally be noticed in the numbers right before showtime.
Which brings me to deaths. Yes, it is well known that this seems to impact the elderly at a much higher rate than younger people, but it's not without risk. Even 3% is shockingly high. In the event it were to be spread around a convention (Gencon or otherwise), I see that problem as fourfold;
- 1: some attendees are indeed within that risk range. Is Gencon even legally able to set a restriction on that? I imagine that would fall under discrimination laws, so even if it's suggested strongly, if the con happens, I don't think they can demand ID and turn away anyone over a certain age.
- ii: were younger people to be infected, they may indeed have a much better chance of surviving. But that won't necessarily save the others they come into contact with. Ideally they wouldn't be going home to hug grandma and grandpa right off the plane, but if a con became a substantial transmission vector, it'd be yet another concern.
- C: Simply getting it but surviving may still require medical attention, which puts further strain on the local medical system (even if it's after the convention is over, hundreds or thousands of new cases springing up across the US or globe isn't going to help things). With fewer resources to go around, some deaths that should have been preventable aren't anymore. If there are 20 ICU beds and 50 patients that need ICU treatment, some of those who could or would have been saved might not be able to get the care that should have saved their life.
- 4: we continue to learn more and more about the disease and its effects on the body. It is being reported that while the manner of infection is through the respiratory system, some of the damage done appears to be to the circulatory system. Manifesting as clotting within the body and possibly leading to heart attacks and strokes in people far younger than one would normally assume for such an event. We simply don't know the outcome here. It may not simply be '1-3% die and everyone else either avoids it or gets immunity'. If it leaves lasting damage on the respiratory and/or circulatory system, that could lead to further health problems and a shortened lifespan for survivors. I don't offer this as an absolute, but it is being studied and it's too early to say one way or another.
Sure, it might not kill many people under 50. But we're still figuring out if it might just make it that much less likely for those survivors to see 50 themselves, even if just due to being weakened against other conditions they incur (related or not as they are to COVID itself).
There are a lot of factors to consider with an easily transmittable virus like this. That you or I may well survive it without any long term effects may be of little help or comfort to someone else we crossed paths with.
This seems to a well sourced article dealing with case studies done on situations where the disease was contracted by others due to exposure. Based on that read, being in close proximity to someone who is contagious (even if currently asymptomatic) could carry a risk. Being outdoors (or in a large well ventilated space) may reduce that some, but simply being around a breathing carrier (let alone talking to them or around one who is shouting, even with basic protective masks) can carry risk.
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR13JtIUL5OvDmjVLBKGr6BJJU13tVHbZxof5iNZi7hfOmLER714KyMsizc
Or how unfair the housing system is and how we need to fix it.
The housing system is unfair because there STILL aren't enough downtown rooms available. They need to fix it by sticking disaster relief tents in White River State Park because there would be nothing that could possibly be awkward about that or go wrong with that.
Looking at the numbers as they are today isn't all that useful. Given the delay between exposure and test results, what we're seeing today is the result of things at the peak of the Indiana lockdown. Over the next couple of weeks we'll start seeing the impact that reopening has had. And even then our trend is increasing, not decreasing (Indiana's results trickle in slowly. We don't see the day's actual numbers until a day or two later.)
When we last meet the census was we didn't expect know anything solid about Gencon until just before July 4th Holiday weekend or until just after said Holiday weekend. So we settled in to wait it out.
So, some of you did not listen and your privileges here are suspended. This is a long thread and it has been made clear on numerous occasions what will and will not be tolerated. Feel free to email [email protected] to discuss the terms of reinstatement.
Thanks Mike....so tired of all the doom and gloom chatter. Everyone be patient to see what Gencon decides or plans to implement changes that allows the con to take place. They are most likely spending a lot of time and energy to what needs to be done to have a safe convention if possible.
Not saying they are not by any means —- but it would be nice to get an update every couple weeks or so. Particularly worried about the unnerving quiet on the Events more than anything...
All I’m saying is we would not be on these forums if we weren’t looking for any glimmer of hope.
G
Yep, maybe a weekly update would be nice, but it may mean procedures have not been decided on yet I would think.
Given the amount of planning and financial investment that comes with a trip to GenCon, and given that much of it requires spending in advance that may or may not be refundable, it's understandable that people are a little anxious and desperate for information.
Everyone involved needs to both give and receive respect and understanding.