Coronavirus
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Posted by rayken

The 3.4% is probably higher. I did my math manually by using 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

And dividing deaths by total cases. 

Whatever the actual reality may be, if even ONE person falls ill (and becomes another host for this that can kill someone else) or dies from a convention with 100,000 people, it's too many, and totally unnecessary.

If the infection rate falls and recovery is in sight by June, I'll reconsider the trip. But as it is now, it's looking like any major trips, especially around 100,000 people or more, are off for 2020. Without being totally judgmental, I believe it would be remiss of GenCon to host the event with Coronavirus cases increasing daily. But again, we won't really know how things look until May or June.
 
It's currently looking like things are just getting started and we're in for a very sick summer. It'll be difficult tot feel comfortable being squeezed in with thousands and thousands all touching games and playing together inches away from one another on low sleep without proper nutrition and sanitation for 4 days even if the virus rates are lower by July.

Call me dramatic, but it's unsettling knowing people are currently dying due to a virus that I would just be ignoring the possibility of in a crowded hall while trying to have fun and enjoy my life that they've lost due to this.

Posted by brother_jayke mikeboozer

mikeboozer wrote:
We place the highest priority on the health and safety of our community, including attendees, exhibitors, partners, and staff so we are monitoring the situation with Covid-19 closely. At this time we are not planning any changes regarding Gen Con 2020.
Mike Boozer
Customer Service & Event Team Manager
Gen Con LLC
Most likely by the time Con comes around this will have died down.  However regardless of Covid-19 it seems to me it would be a prudent gesture to have Hand Sanitizer stations generously distributed around the convention area or perhaps this is already being done? 

Posted by cmegus

I have until July 13th to cancel my downtown reservation. Your dramatic insight is not going to change that for me and many others - and even the others who are right now chomping at the bit to get my room within seconds if I were to cancel.

Life is full of risks. Hell, getting to Gen Con is a risk. I have to drive 300 miles one way (600 miles total round trip) to get there. According to my math, right now statistically, I have twice as much chance of getting killed in a car wreck going to and from the Con as I do dying of this current strain of Coronavirus. Yet I find myself even less worried about driving...

G
 

Posted by kellishaver brotherbock

brotherbock wrote:I don't know about any lack of concern. It's midterm season, and I went to buy hand sanitizer for the classroom yesterday (so collecting and handing back tests and handouts doesn't spread normal diseases, not even COVID concerns). None. I mean, none anywhere. You can buy a 4oz bottle of hand sanitizer off Amazon...if you want to spend $20+ and wait until April for delivery. Walmart.com is out of hand sanitizer. I mean that--Walmart, the entirely company, is saying they don't have any hand sanitizer. My local supermegamart is saying April for their next delivery.

I tried to find Clorox wipes yesterday because I have a cat that sometimes misses his letterbox. Every store in town is out of them. Walmart, Kroger, Dollar Tree, Dollar General - no wipes, even Lowes (which had a big display of them last weekend - a few days before the first case was confirmed in our state). 

The entire cleaning supply isle at our Walmart looks like the bread isle does when the weather forecasts a light dusting of snow.

Posted by matthias9 rayken

rayken wrote:
The 3.4% is probably higher. I did my math manually by using 
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
And dividing deaths by total cases. 
Whatever the actual reality may be, if even ONE person falls ill (and becomes another host for this that can kill someone else) or dies from a convention with 100,000 people, it's too many, and totally unnecessary.
If the infection rate falls and recovery is in sight by June, I'll reconsider the trip. But as it is now, it's looking like any major trips, especially around 100,000 people or more, are off for 2020. Without being totally judgmental, I believe it would be remiss of GenCon to host the event with Coronavirus cases increasing daily. But again, we won't really know how things look until May or June.
 
It's currently looking like things are just getting started and we're in for a very sick summer. It'll be difficult tot feel comfortable being squeezed in with thousands and thousands all touching games and playing together inches away from one another on low sleep without proper nutrition and sanitation for 4 days even if the virus rates are lower by July.

Call me dramatic, but it's unsettling knowing people are currently dying due to a virus that I would just be ignoring the possibility of in a crowded hall while trying to have fun and enjoy my life that they've lost due to this.


With all due respect, if your last sentence is the standard you set for yourself, you should not have come in any prior year.  Nor should you come in any future year.

According to the CDC, there have been more than 20,000 deaths of Americans due to the flu -- just this flu season so far.  Possibly as many as 52,000. 
 

Posted by brotherbock rayken

rayken wrote:
The 3.4% is probably higher. I did my math manually by using 
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
And dividing deaths by total cases. 
Whatever the actual reality may be, if even ONE person falls ill (and becomes another host for this that can kill someone else) or dies from a convention with 100,000 people, it's too many, and totally unnecessary.
If the infection rate falls and recovery is in sight by June, I'll reconsider the trip. But as it is now, it's looking like any major trips, especially around 100,000 people or more, are off for 2020. Without being totally judgmental, I believe it would be remiss of GenCon to host the event with Coronavirus cases increasing daily. But again, we won't really know how things look until May or June.
 
It's currently looking like things are just getting started and we're in for a very sick summer. It'll be difficult tot feel comfortable being squeezed in with thousands and thousands all touching games and playing together inches away from one another on low sleep without proper nutrition and sanitation for 4 days even if the virus rates are lower by July.
Call me dramatic, but it's unsettling knowing people are currently dying due to a virus that I would just be ignoring the possibility of in a crowded hall while trying to have fun and enjoy my life that they've lost due to this.

The CDC and WHO use far more complex calculations and data to reach their figures.  That's why they aren't releasing an 'official' mortality rate yet. Go back and read previous posts, this was discussed before. It's problematic to calculate based solely off reported cases, for example. It's also problematic to go around proclaiming numbers that A) are not what the health authorities are proclaiming and in this case with your high estimate B) are higher than the health authorities are even mentioning with their 'snapshot' figures.

And I simply disagree that the possibility of one death means we shouldn't have conventions, jobs, school, and continue to live our lives. How many people over the years have died in car accidents while driving to Gen Con? I'm fairly confident that number is >0. And those deaths would be entirely preventable if we just never had Gen Con. Life isn't to be lived only when things are 'finally safe'. There are always health concerns. And what societies do is figure out when those concerns are too great. And that cutoff is not at '0% risk'.

Your own evaluation, in my opinion, is failing to take into account a lot of factors. For example, you are saying GC should not hold their event in July and August because of how things are now, and how you think things will turn out then. And then you evaluate and say that you can only see things turning out worse. But in fact the health authorities, to refer to them again, are not saying those same things. Corona viruses, for example, are often worse in cold weather and have more difficulty spreading in warm weather. Flu is the same way. So there is some thought that the summer might see things get better. The speed at which events are canceling now is also a good indication. Furthermore--and I've blasted China for their untrustworthy data through all of this, but--if what they are saying is true at this point (and some outside agencies are monitoring as well), they are starting to open businesses again, return people to work in all but the Wuhan, Hubei area where it all started. So here we are, a month or so out from the worst there, and they claim it's already turning around.

And unlike China, our government, and other governments, started responding to it right away. All of that works against your theory that it will only get worse in the summer. These are all factors that the health agencies we rely on to be professionals are taking into account.

It would be foolish of Gen Con to make decisions about people's lives and livelihoods (GC represents vital business and income for many people) based on things the authorities are not saying, and well in advance of when they have to. Currently, events are canceling about a month out. There is zero reason for Gen Con to cancel now, not when the facts on the ground are changing, for better and worse, by the day.

I won't call you overdramatic--what I will say is that you are making a lot of declarations about how things are and how things are going to be that fly in the face of what public health professionals with far more information than you are saying.

Posted by squirecam cmegus

cmegus wrote:
I have until July 13th to cancel my downtown reservation. Your dramatic insight is not going to change that for me and many others - and even the others who are right now chomping at the bit to get my room within seconds if I were to cancel.
Life is full of risks. Hell, getting to Gen Con is a risk. I have to drive 300 miles one way (600 miles total round trip) to get there. According to my math, right now statistically, I have twice as much chance of getting killed in a car wreck going to and from the Con as I do dying of this current strain of Coronavirus. Yet I find myself even less worried about driving...
G
 

You need to think about others, not yourself. You may be fine after having the disease. The older people or those with underlying condition won’t be so lucky.

If Gencon restricted attendees to those 18-40 without underlying medical conditions, it would still be a bad idea to hold the con if coronavirus were still circling around. What about the hundreds or thousands of people living and working downtown. What about their health?

 

Posted by squirecam

We aren’t doing enough to stop the spread according to the former FDA chief.

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/5007417002?__twitter_impression=true

Q. Can an epidemic still be avoided?

A. We certainly are past containment. We have to think about aggressive steps at mitigation. It's impossible to avoid an epidemic here in the U.S. We do have the potential to limit the scope of the epidemic, but we need to be taking more aggressive steps. My concern now is we're not taking aggressive enough steps at mitigation to prevent a broader epidemic. And so the risk is that we have the potential for tens of thousands of cases and not just thousands of cases.

Q. What can mitigation accomplish?

A. If you implement mitigation steps, what you do is, you slow the rate at which people get the virus. You end up extending the epidemic, it lasts longer, but it doesn't peak as high. You want to slow the rate of infection here so that you can manage it with the health care system. That's got to be a primary concern right now.

Q. What does aggressive mitigation look like?

A. Shutting down businesses where you have a large number of people congregating indoors, where you have rapid spread. Think of movie theaters. Requiring businesses to have nonessential people telework. Slowing transportation.

 

Posted by brotherbock squirecam

squirecam wrote:If Gencon restricted attendees to those 18-40 without underlying medical conditions, it would still be a bad idea to hold the con if coronavirus were still circling around.
 

One possibility is that COVID-19 never actually 'goes away'. It may end up being a yearly thing where we have a COVID-19 season, like the flu. And it also may be that we have vaccines eventually, with the same non-perfect effectiveness.

Are you saying then that we should never have Gen Con again in that case?

It will be a bad idea to have large gatherings if COVID-19 is spreading and infecting at too high a rate. It will be as reasonable to have large gatherings as it ever is if the risk drops down far enough to be acceptable. This is not a binary relationship--100% safety means we have gatherings, <100% safety means we don't. That's not how anyone actually operates.

It's also the case that people with compromised systems need to make decisions for themselves at some point. For example, it is always the case that some people with compromised systems have to not go places because of seasonal flu. But that doesn't mean the rest of us should change our behavior dramatically. If COVID-19 is in the manageable stage in July, but still 'around', it will make perfect sense to hold a convention, even if people who are particularly at risk should not attend.

Posted by squirecam rayken

rayken wrote:
The 3.4% is probably higher. I did my math manually by using 
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
And dividing deaths by total cases. 
Whatever the actual reality may be, if even ONE person falls ill (and becomes another host for this that can kill someone else) or dies from a convention with 100,000 people, it's too many, and totally unnecessary.
If the infection rate falls and recovery is in sight by June, I'll reconsider the trip. But as it is now, it's looking like any major trips, especially around 100,000 people or more, are off for 2020. Without being totally judgmental, I believe it would be remiss of GenCon to host the event with Coronavirus cases increasing daily. But again, we won't really know how things look until May or June.
 
It's currently looking like things are just getting started and we're in for a very sick summer. It'll be difficult tot feel comfortable being squeezed in with thousands and thousands all touching games and playing together inches away from one another on low sleep without proper nutrition and sanitation for 4 days even if the virus rates are lower by July.
Call me dramatic, but it's unsettling knowing people are currently dying due to a virus that I would just be ignoring the possibility of in a crowded hall while trying to have fun and enjoy my life that they've lost due to this.
The former head of the FDA says the virus is deadly to older Americans.

Q. Who is at the greatest risk?

A. The case fatality rates really start to increase dramatically above 60. So you look at some of the literature, 60 to 70 case fatality rate is probably about 4%; 70 to 80, it's probably 10%; above 80, it looks like it's 14 or 15%. It really goes up dramatically. But this isn't a benign illness, even for someone who's 45, or 47 like me. (Potentially) 1 in 250 to 1 in 550 45-year-olds who get this will die. That's enormous.

Posted by squirecam brotherbock

brotherbock wrote:
squirecam wrote:If Gencon restricted attendees to those 18-40 without underlying medical conditions, it would still be a bad idea to hold the con if coronavirus were still circling around.

One possibility is that COVID-19 never actually 'goes away'. It may end up being a yearly thing where we have a COVID-19 season, like the flu. And it also may be that we have vaccines eventually, with the same non-perfect effectiveness.Are you saying then that we should never have Gen Con again in that case?
It will be a bad idea to have large gatherings if COVID-19 is spreading and infecting at too high a rate. It will be as reasonable to have large gatherings as it ever is if the risk drops down far enough to be acceptable. This is not a binary relationship--100% safety means we have gatherings, <100% safety means we don't. That's not how anyone actually operates.
It's also the case that people with compromised systems need to make decisions for themselves at some point. For example, it is always the case that some people with compromised systems have to not go places because of seasonal flu. But that doesn't mean the rest of us should change our behavior dramatically. If COVID-19 is in the manageable stage in July, but still 'around', it will make perfect sense to hold a convention, even if people who are particularly at risk should not attend.
The FDA expert I linked to say we shouldn’t have such gatherings NOW. If we are still in active infections of the same amount as we have NOW in July, then no, Gencon should be cancelled.

And your gathering risks everyone else in downtown Indy. There are likely older workers or those with compromised immune systems. This is not the same as the flu and should not be treated as such.

Q. And large gatherings?

A. I think right now, we should be limiting large gatherings, especially in areas where we know that there's spread.

Q. Would you cancel March Madness?

A. I think we're going to be at a point very soon where we think of canceling sporting events (or holding) them in empty stadiums like they're doing in South Korea. You don't want to bring together a lot of people in closed spaces, especially indoors, where you can have easy transfer. Look at what happened with the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) and AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) conferences. Do you want to continue to hold conferences and have to run the risk that your entire attendee list is put into a quarantine because there was someone there who is infected?

 

Posted by brotherbock squirecam

squirecam wrote:
brotherbock wrote:
squirecam wrote:If Gencon restricted attendees to those 18-40 without underlying medical conditions, it would still be a bad idea to hold the con if coronavirus were still circling around.

One possibility is that COVID-19 never actually 'goes away'. It may end up being a yearly thing where we have a COVID-19 season, like the flu. And it also may be that we have vaccines eventually, with the same non-perfect effectiveness.Are you saying then that we should never have Gen Con again in that case?
It will be a bad idea to have large gatherings if COVID-19 is spreading and infecting at too high a rate. It will be as reasonable to have large gatherings as it ever is if the risk drops down far enough to be acceptable. This is not a binary relationship--100% safety means we have gatherings, <100% safety means we don't. That's not how anyone actually operates.
It's also the case that people with compromised systems need to make decisions for themselves at some point. For example, it is always the case that some people with compromised systems have to not go places because of seasonal flu. But that doesn't mean the rest of us should change our behavior dramatically. If COVID-19 is in the manageable stage in July, but still 'around', it will make perfect sense to hold a convention, even if people who are particularly at risk should not attend.
The FDA expert I linked to say we shouldn’t have such gatherings NOW. If we are still in active infections of the same amount as we have NOW in July, then no, Gencon should be cancelled.And your gathering risks everyone else in downtown Indy. There are likely older workers or those with compromised immune systems. This is not the same as the flu and should not be treated as such.Q. And large gatherings?A. I think right now, we should be limiting large gatherings, especially in areas where we know that there's spread.Q. Would you cancel March Madness?A. I think we're going to be at a point very soon where we think of canceling sporting events (or holding) them in empty stadiums like they're doing in South Korea. You don't want to bring together a lot of people in closed spaces, especially indoors, where you can have easy transfer. Look at what happened with the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) and AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) conferences. Do you want to continue to hold conferences and have to run the risk that your entire attendee list is put into a quarantine because there was someone there who is infected?
 

Yes. The notion that things should be determined once we know how things will be in July is in fact something I have stated above, a number of times. What I am pushing back on is people saying now that Gen Con 'should be canceled'. As if they know the future.

Scott Gottlieb, btw, was an internal med doctor about 20 years ago, before going into a career in pharma consulting and board work for pharma companies, and political appointments. His tenure at the FDA wasn't awful by any means. But the FDA is not an agency that specializes in things like epidemics and pandemics, and neither is his medical background one of epidemics and pandemics and infectious diseases.

Go look at what the CDC and the WHO are saying. That's what I'm doing. If you want to listen to the FDA about epidemics, you certainly can. But that's not what they do professionally, and it's not what Gottlieb ever did professionally.

 

Posted by squirecam brotherbock

brotherbock wrote:
squirecam wrote:
brotherbock wrote:
squirecam wrote:If Gencon restricted attendees to those 18-40 without underlying medical conditions, it would still be a bad idea to hold the con if coronavirus were still circling around.

One possibility is that COVID-19 never actually 'goes away'. It may end up being a yearly thing where we have a COVID-19 season, like the flu. And it also may be that we have vaccines eventually, with the same non-perfect effectiveness.Are you saying then that we should never have Gen Con again in that case?
It will be a bad idea to have large gatherings if COVID-19 is spreading and infecting at too high a rate. It will be as reasonable to have large gatherings as it ever is if the risk drops down far enough to be acceptable. This is not a binary relationship--100% safety means we have gatherings, <100% safety means we don't. That's not how anyone actually operates.
It's also the case that people with compromised systems need to make decisions for themselves at some point. For example, it is always the case that some people with compromised systems have to not go places because of seasonal flu. But that doesn't mean the rest of us should change our behavior dramatically. If COVID-19 is in the manageable stage in July, but still 'around', it will make perfect sense to hold a convention, even if people who are particularly at risk should not attend.
The FDA expert I linked to say we shouldn’t have such gatherings NOW. If we are still in active infections of the same amount as we have NOW in July, then no, Gencon should be cancelled.And your gathering risks everyone else in downtown Indy. There are likely older workers or those with compromised immune systems. This is not the same as the flu and should not be treated as such.Q. And large gatherings?A. I think right now, we should be limiting large gatherings, especially in areas where we know that there's spread.Q. Would you cancel March Madness?A. I think we're going to be at a point very soon where we think of canceling sporting events (or holding) them in empty stadiums like they're doing in South Korea. You don't want to bring together a lot of people in closed spaces, especially indoors, where you can have easy transfer. Look at what happened with the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) and AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) conferences. Do you want to continue to hold conferences and have to run the risk that your entire attendee list is put into a quarantine because there was someone there who is infected?

Yes. The notion that things should be determined once we know how things will be in July is in fact something I have stated above, a number of times. What I am pushing back on is people saying now that Gen Con 'should be canceled'. As if they know the future.Scott Gottlieb, btw, was an internal med doctor about 20 years ago, before going into a career in pharma consulting and board work for pharma companies, and political appointments. His tenure at the FDA wasn't awful by any means. But the FDA is not an agency that specializes in things like epidemics and pandemics, and neither is his medical background one of epidemics and pandemics and infectious diseases.
Go look at what the CDC and the WHO are saying. That's what I'm doing. If you want to listen to the FDA about epidemics, you certainly can. But that's not what they do professionally, and it's not what Gottlieb ever did professionally.
 
If Gencon were in March or April, it should be cancelled. We do have some time. But by The end of May, we should know how infections are proceeding. If we are still having the same issue then, Gencon should be cancelled. 

Posted by brotherbock squirecam

squirecam wrote:
If Gencon were in March or April, it should be cancelled. We do have some time. But by The end of May, we should know how infections are proceeding. If we are still having the same issue then, Gencon should be cancelled. 

That's pretty reasonable, yeah. I'd differ just by saying that, given that we're in March and talking about April events for the most part, I'd say GC has until early June before they have to decide. Particularly because, by then, we'll have more data about the disease, about it's spread, and etc. So my take is that we have all of March, all of April, and all of May before we should start talking about 'Gen Con should/should not cancel the con'. 2.5-3 months. That's one of the reasons I pushed back against what rayken was saying.

Posted by matthias9

Maybe we should send out a survey of attendees:

"If there is a virus going around that will likely kill tens of thousands of people in this county per year, should we cancel Gen Con?"

Posted by lehane

Emerald City Comicon didn't postpone until a few weeks away from the event's planned start. Gencon doesn't need to make a decision for months still. 

Now is the time for everyone to do the hardest thing of all: Wait. 

Posted by cmegus matthias9

matthias9 wrote:
Maybe we should send out a survey of attendees:
"If there is a virus going around that will likely kill tens of thousands of people in this county per year, should we cancel Gen Con?"

I really hate to be the one to tell you this —- but that is already the case. Had been for years now, at least 25+ years of a virus killing at least 10,000 per year. We call it the flu.

And yet, Gen Con still went on...

just saying...

G
 

Posted by mikeboozer cmegus

[This post has been removed]

Posted by squirecam cmegus

cmegus wrote:
matthias9 wrote:
Maybe we should send out a survey of attendees:
"If there is a virus going around that will likely kill tens of thousands of people in this county per year, should we cancel Gen Con?"
I really hate to be the one to tell you this —- but that is already the case. Had been for years now, at least 25+ years of a virus killing at least 10,000 per year. We call it the flu.
And yet, Gen Con still went on...
just saying...
G
 
Its this attitude that is problematic. The flu has a death rate of .1%. Not 1%.

This virus kills the elderly at up to 15%. See the link I posted earlier.

Posted by brotherbock lehane

lehane wrote:
Emerald City Comicon didn't postpone until a few weeks away from the event's planned start. Gencon doesn't need to make a decision for months still. 
Now is the time for everyone to do the hardest thing of all: Wait. 

Exactly.

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